NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SH BRY
Points 69.4 78.4
Total Points   147.8
Points From 2-Pointers 33.4 36.8
Points From 3-Pointers 21.4 28.0
Points From Free Throws 14.7 13.5
Shooting SH BRY
Field Goals Made 23.8 27.8
Field Goals Attempted 63.6 60.7
Field Goal % 37.4% 45.7%
2 Pointers Made 16.7 18.4
2 Pointers Attempted 42.5 34.9
2 Point Shooting % 39.3% 52.7%
3 Pointers Made 7.1 9.3
3 Pointers Attempted 21.1 25.8
3 Point Shooting % 33.8% 36.3%
Free Throws Made 14.7 13.5
Free Throws Attempted 20.9 20.0
Free Throw % 70.0% 67.6%
Ball Control SH BRY
Rebounds 36.6 42.3
Rebounds - Defensive 27.6 33.5
Rebounds - Offensive 9.0 8.8
Turnovers 10.8 13.0
Blocked Shots 4.4 6.2
Steals 8.6 5.6
Fouls 16.2 14.0

Playing Style Advantage: Bryant

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SH BRY
Total Possessions 76.9
Effective Scoring Chances 75.2 72.7
% of Possessions with SH BRY
2 Point Attempt 48.1% 40.0%
3 Point Attempt 23.9% 29.5%
Player Fouled 18.2% 21.1%
Turnover 14.0% 16.9%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 11.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken SH BRY
Shot Blocked 10.4% 7.1%
Offensive Rebound 21.2% 24.2%