NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DEN CIT
Points 78.4 78.7
Total Points   157.1
Points From 2-Pointers 39.0 45.5
Points From 3-Pointers 27.8 18.8
Points From Free Throws 11.5 14.5
Shooting DEN CIT
Field Goals Made 28.8 29.0
Field Goals Attempted 60.3 58.1
Field Goal % 47.7% 49.9%
2 Pointers Made 19.5 22.7
2 Pointers Attempted 34.0 40.7
2 Point Shooting % 57.4% 55.9%
3 Pointers Made 9.3 6.3
3 Pointers Attempted 26.4 17.4
3 Point Shooting % 35.2% 35.9%
Free Throws Made 11.5 14.5
Free Throws Attempted 16.3 20.3
Free Throw % 70.7% 71.4%
Ball Control DEN CIT
Rebounds 31.5 34.7
Rebounds - Defensive 23.7 26.3
Rebounds - Offensive 7.8 8.4
Turnovers 9.2 10.1
Blocked Shots 4.9 3.0
Steals 6.0 4.2
Fouls 15.4 14.1

Playing Style Advantage: Citadel

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DEN CIT
Total Possessions 71.4
Effective Scoring Chances 70.0 69.7
% of Possessions with DEN CIT
2 Point Attempt 42.2% 49.8%
3 Point Attempt 32.8% 21.3%
Player Fouled 19.8% 21.6%
Turnover 12.9% 14.1%
Opponent Steal 5.8% 8.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken DEN CIT
Shot Blocked 5.3% 8.2%
Offensive Rebound 22.8% 26.1%