NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SH PROV
Points 60.7 79.5
Total Points   140.3
Points From 2-Pointers 31.2 32.5
Points From 3-Pointers 18.5 30.0
Points From Free Throws 11.1 17.0
Shooting SH PROV
Field Goals Made 21.8 26.3
Field Goals Attempted 58.6 56.1
Field Goal % 37.1% 46.8%
2 Pointers Made 15.6 16.3
2 Pointers Attempted 40.9 28.5
2 Point Shooting % 38.1% 57.1%
3 Pointers Made 6.2 10.0
3 Pointers Attempted 17.7 27.6
3 Point Shooting % 34.9% 36.3%
Free Throws Made 11.1 17.0
Free Throws Attempted 15.8 22.7
Free Throw % 70.0% 74.5%
Ball Control SH PROV
Rebounds 28.7 43.3
Rebounds - Defensive 21.8 32.1
Rebounds - Offensive 6.9 11.2
Turnovers 11.1 12.4
Blocked Shots 3.5 4.8
Steals 7.7 5.9
Fouls 17.1 13.2

Playing Style Advantage: Providence

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SH PROV
Total Possessions 71.7
Effective Scoring Chances 67.4 70.4
% of Possessions with SH PROV
2 Point Attempt 50.9% 33.8%
3 Point Attempt 22.0% 32.8%
Player Fouled 18.5% 23.9%
Turnover 15.5% 17.4%
Opponent Steal 8.3% 10.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken SH PROV
Shot Blocked 8.7% 6.2%
Offensive Rebound 17.6% 33.9%