NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DEN CSUS
Points 74.8 74.5
Total Points   149.3
Points From 2-Pointers 36.2 38.0
Points From 3-Pointers 24.2 22.9
Points From Free Throws 14.4 13.6
Shooting DEN CSUS
Field Goals Made 26.2 26.6
Field Goals Attempted 56.6 57.6
Field Goal % 46.2% 46.3%
2 Pointers Made 18.1 19.0
2 Pointers Attempted 33.2 36.1
2 Point Shooting % 54.5% 52.7%
3 Pointers Made 8.1 7.6
3 Pointers Attempted 23.5 21.5
3 Point Shooting % 34.4% 35.5%
Free Throws Made 14.4 13.6
Free Throws Attempted 20.4 19.0
Free Throw % 70.7% 71.7%
Ball Control DEN CSUS
Rebounds 30.0 37.4
Rebounds - Defensive 22.1 25.8
Rebounds - Offensive 7.9 11.6
Turnovers 8.7 11.5
Blocked Shots 3.7 3.5
Steals 6.3 4.1
Fouls 14.9 16.2

Playing Style Advantage: Sac State

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DEN CSUS
Total Possessions 69.4
Effective Scoring Chances 68.5 69.5
% of Possessions with DEN CSUS
2 Point Attempt 42.1% 43.7%
3 Point Attempt 29.9% 26.1%
Player Fouled 23.4% 21.4%
Turnover 12.6% 16.5%
Opponent Steal 6.0% 9.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken DEN CSUS
Shot Blocked 6.2% 6.6%
Offensive Rebound 23.4% 34.4%