NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DEN HCU
Points 91.3 76.7
Total Points   168.0
Points From 2-Pointers 49.7 46.4
Points From 3-Pointers 27.3 15.0
Points From Free Throws 14.3 15.3
Shooting DEN HCU
Field Goals Made 34.0 28.2
Field Goals Attempted 65.9 61.5
Field Goal % 51.6% 45.8%
2 Pointers Made 24.9 23.2
2 Pointers Attempted 40.3 46.8
2 Point Shooting % 61.7% 49.6%
3 Pointers Made 9.1 5.0
3 Pointers Attempted 25.6 14.8
3 Point Shooting % 35.6% 33.8%
Free Throws Made 14.3 15.3
Free Throws Attempted 20.2 23.9
Free Throw % 70.7% 64.1%
Ball Control DEN HCU
Rebounds 37.3 35.9
Rebounds - Defensive 27.1 25.1
Rebounds - Offensive 10.2 10.8
Turnovers 8.0 11.2
Blocked Shots 5.4 2.5
Steals 7.0 4.1
Fouls 15.8 13.9

Playing Style Advantage: Hsn Christian

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DEN HCU
Total Possessions 75.9
Effective Scoring Chances 78.1 75.5
% of Possessions with DEN HCU
2 Point Attempt 46.3% 52.6%
3 Point Attempt 29.4% 16.6%
Player Fouled 18.3% 20.8%
Turnover 10.5% 14.7%
Opponent Steal 5.4% 9.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken DEN HCU
Shot Blocked 4.1% 8.3%
Offensive Rebound 28.8% 28.4%