NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DEN UNM
Points 69.6 92.8
Total Points   162.4
Points From 2-Pointers 32.3 56.5
Points From 3-Pointers 23.1 19.1
Points From Free Throws 14.2 17.3
Shooting DEN UNM
Field Goals Made 23.8 34.6
Field Goals Attempted 62.0 66.5
Field Goal % 38.5% 52.1%
2 Pointers Made 16.1 28.2
2 Pointers Attempted 36.4 49.1
2 Point Shooting % 44.3% 57.5%
3 Pointers Made 7.7 6.4
3 Pointers Attempted 25.5 17.4
3 Point Shooting % 30.1% 36.6%
Free Throws Made 14.2 17.3
Free Throws Attempted 20.1 23.9
Free Throw % 70.7% 72.3%
Ball Control DEN UNM
Rebounds 31.8 44.2
Rebounds - Defensive 23.0 31.7
Rebounds - Offensive 8.8 12.5
Turnovers 11.5 7.5
Blocked Shots 4.0 7.1
Steals 4.7 6.6
Fouls 16.0 15.1

Playing Style Advantage: Denver

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DEN UNM
Total Possessions 75.5
Effective Scoring Chances 72.8 80.5
% of Possessions with DEN UNM
2 Point Attempt 41.8% 54.8%
3 Point Attempt 29.3% 19.4%
Player Fouled 20.0% 21.1%
Turnover 15.2% 9.9%
Opponent Steal 8.7% 6.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken DEN UNM
Shot Blocked 10.9% 6.8%
Offensive Rebound 21.8% 35.2%