NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SH PITT
Points 61.7 85.8
Total Points   147.4
Points From 2-Pointers 31.4 35.0
Points From 3-Pointers 19.1 35.1
Points From Free Throws 11.2 15.6
Shooting SH PITT
Field Goals Made 22.1 29.2
Field Goals Attempted 55.7 61.9
Field Goal % 39.6% 47.2%
2 Pointers Made 15.7 17.5
2 Pointers Attempted 35.3 33.1
2 Point Shooting % 44.5% 52.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.4 11.7
3 Pointers Attempted 20.4 28.8
3 Point Shooting % 31.2% 40.7%
Free Throws Made 11.2 15.6
Free Throws Attempted 15.9 21.4
Free Throw % 70.0% 73.0%
Ball Control SH PITT
Rebounds 28.0 43.4
Rebounds - Defensive 22.1 29.8
Rebounds - Offensive 5.9 13.6
Turnovers 11.2 8.3
Blocked Shots 3.8 5.6
Steals 5.1 6.2
Fouls 15.8 12.9

Playing Style Advantage: Pittsburgh

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SH PITT
Total Possessions 69.6
Effective Scoring Chances 64.3 74.9
% of Possessions with SH PITT
2 Point Attempt 45.5% 39.1%
3 Point Attempt 26.2% 34.0%
Player Fouled 18.6% 22.7%
Turnover 16.1% 11.9%
Opponent Steal 8.9% 7.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken SH PITT
Shot Blocked 9.1% 7.0%
Offensive Rebound 16.5% 38.0%