NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SH FAIR
Points 72.0 78.7
Total Points   150.8
Points From 2-Pointers 39.5 32.8
Points From 3-Pointers 22.0 32.4
Points From Free Throws 10.5 13.5
Shooting SH FAIR
Field Goals Made 27.1 27.2
Field Goals Attempted 56.3 60.9
Field Goal % 48.1% 44.7%
2 Pointers Made 19.8 16.4
2 Pointers Attempted 36.2 32.7
2 Point Shooting % 54.6% 50.1%
3 Pointers Made 7.3 10.8
3 Pointers Attempted 20.1 28.2
3 Point Shooting % 36.5% 38.4%
Free Throws Made 10.5 13.5
Free Throws Attempted 14.9 18.2
Free Throw % 70.0% 74.0%
Ball Control SH FAIR
Rebounds 31.8 35.9
Rebounds - Defensive 24.8 24.7
Rebounds - Offensive 7.0 11.2
Turnovers 12.4 10.3
Blocked Shots 4.0 2.2
Steals 6.2 7.7
Fouls 13.8 12.3

Playing Style Advantage: Fairfield

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SH FAIR
Total Possessions 71.1
Effective Scoring Chances 65.7 72.0
% of Possessions with SH FAIR
2 Point Attempt 45.8% 39.0%
3 Point Attempt 25.5% 33.6%
Player Fouled 17.2% 19.4%
Turnover 17.4% 14.5%
Opponent Steal 10.8% 8.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken SH FAIR
Shot Blocked 3.7% 7.1%
Offensive Rebound 22.2% 31.2%