NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ECU HOU
Points 53.7 79.3
Total Points   133.0
Points From 2-Pointers 22.7 38.9
Points From 3-Pointers 16.7 26.9
Points From Free Throws 14.3 13.5
Shooting ECU HOU
Field Goals Made 16.9 28.4
Field Goals Attempted 50.3 60.5
Field Goal % 33.6% 47.0%
2 Pointers Made 11.4 19.4
2 Pointers Attempted 30.4 35.1
2 Point Shooting % 37.4% 55.4%
3 Pointers Made 5.6 9.0
3 Pointers Attempted 19.9 25.4
3 Point Shooting % 27.9% 35.3%
Free Throws Made 14.3 13.5
Free Throws Attempted 20.9 19.0
Free Throw % 68.6% 71.1%
Ball Control ECU HOU
Rebounds 30.8 41.0
Rebounds - Defensive 20.7 26.5
Rebounds - Offensive 10.1 14.6
Turnovers 12.9 7.5
Blocked Shots 1.8 5.7
Steals 4.7 7.9
Fouls 13.3 14.7

Playing Style Advantage: Houston

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ECU HOU
Total Possessions 65.8
Effective Scoring Chances 62.9 72.8
% of Possessions with ECU HOU
2 Point Attempt 38.9% 43.3%
3 Point Attempt 25.5% 31.3%
Player Fouled 22.4% 20.1%
Turnover 19.7% 11.5%
Opponent Steal 12.0% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken ECU HOU
Shot Blocked 9.5% 3.7%
Offensive Rebound 27.5% 41.3%