NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ECU UCF
Points 61.5 72.9
Total Points   134.4
Points From 2-Pointers 26.8 35.0
Points From 3-Pointers 18.6 22.7
Points From Free Throws 16.1 15.2
Shooting ECU UCF
Field Goals Made 19.6 25.1
Field Goals Attempted 52.8 55.9
Field Goal % 37.1% 44.9%
2 Pointers Made 13.4 17.5
2 Pointers Attempted 32.8 33.1
2 Point Shooting % 40.8% 52.9%
3 Pointers Made 6.2 7.6
3 Pointers Attempted 20.0 22.8
3 Point Shooting % 30.9% 33.2%
Free Throws Made 16.1 15.2
Free Throws Attempted 23.5 22.2
Free Throw % 68.6% 68.6%
Ball Control ECU UCF
Rebounds 31.9 40.0
Rebounds - Defensive 22.5 27.6
Rebounds - Offensive 9.4 12.4
Turnovers 11.7 11.0
Blocked Shots 2.5 5.2
Steals 6.5 7.1
Fouls 15.0 15.7

Playing Style Advantage: UCF

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ECU UCF
Total Possessions 68.9
Effective Scoring Chances 66.6 70.3
% of Possessions with ECU UCF
2 Point Attempt 40.8% 40.2%
3 Point Attempt 24.9% 27.7%
Player Fouled 22.8% 21.8%
Turnover 16.9% 16.0%
Opponent Steal 10.4% 9.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken ECU UCF
Shot Blocked 9.5% 4.8%
Offensive Rebound 25.4% 35.6%