NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ECU UNCW
Points 70.1 74.3
Total Points   144.5
Points From 2-Pointers 36.7 34.7
Points From 3-Pointers 19.9 24.8
Points From Free Throws 13.6 14.8
Shooting ECU UNCW
Field Goals Made 24.9 25.6
Field Goals Attempted 55.5 56.9
Field Goal % 45.0% 45.0%
2 Pointers Made 18.3 17.3
2 Pointers Attempted 36.2 30.8
2 Point Shooting % 50.6% 56.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.6 8.3
3 Pointers Attempted 19.3 26.1
3 Point Shooting % 34.4% 31.7%
Free Throws Made 13.6 14.8
Free Throws Attempted 19.9 19.1
Free Throw % 68.6% 77.5%
Ball Control ECU UNCW
Rebounds 33.6 34.2
Rebounds - Defensive 23.0 23.5
Rebounds - Offensive 10.6 10.7
Turnovers 9.3 8.5
Blocked Shots 2.3 2.2
Steals 4.6 4.9
Fouls 14.5 14.5

Playing Style Advantage: NC-Wilmgton

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ECU UNCW
Total Possessions 66.7
Effective Scoring Chances 68.0 68.8
% of Possessions with ECU UNCW
2 Point Attempt 46.3% 39.3%
3 Point Attempt 24.6% 33.3%
Player Fouled 21.8% 21.7%
Turnover 13.9% 12.8%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 6.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken ECU UNCW
Shot Blocked 3.9% 4.2%
Offensive Rebound 31.1% 31.7%