NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HOF HOU
Points 55.2 75.0
Total Points   130.1
Points From 2-Pointers 20.8 34.3
Points From 3-Pointers 24.0 28.0
Points From Free Throws 10.5 12.7
Shooting HOF HOU
Field Goals Made 18.4 26.5
Field Goals Attempted 50.1 61.2
Field Goal % 36.7% 43.3%
2 Pointers Made 10.4 17.2
2 Pointers Attempted 24.8 36.0
2 Point Shooting % 41.8% 47.6%
3 Pointers Made 8.0 9.3
3 Pointers Attempted 25.3 25.2
3 Point Shooting % 31.6% 37.0%
Free Throws Made 10.5 12.7
Free Throws Attempted 14.3 17.8
Free Throw % 73.2% 71.1%
Ball Control HOF HOU
Rebounds 30.0 40.9
Rebounds - Defensive 23.6 26.9
Rebounds - Offensive 6.4 14.0
Turnovers 13.9 7.3
Blocked Shots 2.1 4.9
Steals 3.8 8.2
Fouls 12.4 13.9

Playing Style Advantage: Houston

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HOF HOU
Total Possessions 65.9
Effective Scoring Chances 58.4 72.6
% of Possessions with HOF HOU
2 Point Attempt 33.4% 44.6%
3 Point Attempt 34.0% 31.2%
Player Fouled 21.2% 18.8%
Turnover 21.1% 11.1%
Opponent Steal 12.5% 5.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken HOF HOU
Shot Blocked 8.0% 4.3%
Offensive Rebound 19.2% 37.2%