NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NORL MSST
Points 61.1 89.6
Total Points   150.7
Points From 2-Pointers 34.0 52.1
Points From 3-Pointers 12.8 20.1
Points From Free Throws 14.3 17.4
Shooting NORL MSST
Field Goals Made 21.3 32.7
Field Goals Attempted 56.9 57.9
Field Goal % 37.4% 56.5%
2 Pointers Made 17.0 26.0
2 Pointers Attempted 39.3 39.3
2 Point Shooting % 43.2% 66.2%
3 Pointers Made 4.3 6.7
3 Pointers Attempted 17.6 18.6
3 Point Shooting % 24.3% 36.1%
Free Throws Made 14.3 17.4
Free Throws Attempted 20.2 26.6
Free Throw % 70.6% 65.5%
Ball Control NORL MSST
Rebounds 25.3 44.0
Rebounds - Defensive 16.6 30.0
Rebounds - Offensive 8.6 14.0
Turnovers 12.6 11.9
Blocked Shots 2.8 4.2
Steals 6.3 7.3
Fouls 18.0 16.5

Playing Style Advantage: New Orleans

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NORL MSST
Total Possessions 73.0
Effective Scoring Chances 69.1 75.1
% of Possessions with NORL MSST
2 Point Attempt 47.2% 44.6%
3 Point Attempt 21.1% 21.1%
Player Fouled 22.6% 24.6%
Turnover 17.2% 16.3%
Opponent Steal 10.0% 8.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken NORL MSST
Shot Blocked 7.3% 5.0%
Offensive Rebound 22.3% 45.7%