NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NORL NWST
Points 74.0 75.6
Total Points   149.5
Points From 2-Pointers 39.8 43.3
Points From 3-Pointers 13.4 15.7
Points From Free Throws 20.8 16.5
Shooting NORL NWST
Field Goals Made 24.3 26.9
Field Goals Attempted 56.1 58.4
Field Goal % 43.4% 46.0%
2 Pointers Made 19.9 21.7
2 Pointers Attempted 40.0 42.2
2 Point Shooting % 49.7% 51.3%
3 Pointers Made 4.5 5.2
3 Pointers Attempted 16.1 16.2
3 Point Shooting % 27.6% 32.3%
Free Throws Made 20.8 16.5
Free Throws Attempted 29.4 25.4
Free Throw % 70.6% 64.9%
Ball Control NORL NWST
Rebounds 35.2 38.1
Rebounds - Defensive 23.8 25.4
Rebounds - Offensive 11.4 12.7
Turnovers 11.4 12.8
Blocked Shots 4.6 3.4
Steals 6.7 5.6
Fouls 17.6 19.5

Playing Style Advantage: New Orleans

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NORL NWST
Total Possessions 74.3
Effective Scoring Chances 74.3 74.3
% of Possessions with NORL NWST
2 Point Attempt 46.0% 47.5%
3 Point Attempt 18.5% 18.3%
Player Fouled 26.2% 23.7%
Turnover 15.4% 17.2%
Opponent Steal 7.5% 9.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken NORL NWST
Shot Blocked 5.9% 8.2%
Offensive Rebound 31.0% 34.8%