NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NORL SMU
Points 64.2 89.6
Total Points   153.8
Points From 2-Pointers 34.3 52.0
Points From 3-Pointers 13.9 20.3
Points From Free Throws 15.9 17.3
Shooting NORL SMU
Field Goals Made 21.8 32.8
Field Goals Attempted 58.9 64.7
Field Goal % 37.0% 50.7%
2 Pointers Made 17.2 26.0
2 Pointers Attempted 42.8 46.0
2 Point Shooting % 40.1% 56.5%
3 Pointers Made 4.6 6.8
3 Pointers Attempted 16.1 18.7
3 Point Shooting % 28.8% 36.3%
Free Throws Made 15.9 17.3
Free Throws Attempted 22.6 25.2
Free Throw % 70.6% 68.6%
Ball Control NORL SMU
Rebounds 29.7 46.7
Rebounds - Defensive 19.0 29.4
Rebounds - Offensive 10.6 17.2
Turnovers 12.1 10.1
Blocked Shots 4.6 6.5
Steals 6.1 7.2
Fouls 15.7 17.2

Playing Style Advantage: S Methodist

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NORL SMU
Total Possessions 73.4
Effective Scoring Chances 71.9 80.5
% of Possessions with NORL SMU
2 Point Attempt 49.3% 49.8%
3 Point Attempt 18.6% 20.2%
Player Fouled 23.4% 21.4%
Turnover 16.5% 13.8%
Opponent Steal 9.9% 8.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken NORL SMU
Shot Blocked 10.3% 8.1%
Offensive Rebound 26.6% 47.5%