NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring EVAN UTM
Points 78.0 75.7
Total Points   153.7
Points From 2-Pointers 39.9 33.0
Points From 3-Pointers 27.2 28.8
Points From Free Throws 10.8 13.9
Shooting EVAN UTM
Field Goals Made 29.0 26.1
Field Goals Attempted 63.9 62.1
Field Goal % 45.4% 42.0%
2 Pointers Made 20.0 16.5
2 Pointers Attempted 37.3 35.9
2 Point Shooting % 53.5% 45.9%
3 Pointers Made 9.1 9.6
3 Pointers Attempted 26.6 26.2
3 Point Shooting % 34.1% 36.7%
Free Throws Made 10.8 13.9
Free Throws Attempted 15.5 18.4
Free Throw % 69.9% 75.6%
Ball Control EVAN UTM
Rebounds 36.2 39.4
Rebounds - Defensive 29.0 30.2
Rebounds - Offensive 7.2 9.2
Turnovers 8.3 10.3
Blocked Shots 3.7 2.5
Steals 6.0 5.1
Fouls 14.0 13.2

Playing Style Advantage: Evansville

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats EVAN UTM
Total Possessions 74.1
Effective Scoring Chances 73.0 73.1
% of Possessions with EVAN UTM
2 Point Attempt 45.4% 42.4%
3 Point Attempt 32.3% 30.9%
Player Fouled 17.9% 18.9%
Turnover 11.1% 13.9%
Opponent Steal 6.9% 8.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken EVAN UTM
Shot Blocked 4.1% 5.9%
Offensive Rebound 19.3% 24.1%