NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PENN HARV
Points 72.1 72.0
Total Points   144.1
Points From 2-Pointers 33.5 33.7
Points From 3-Pointers 28.5 25.3
Points From Free Throws 10.2 13.0
Shooting PENN HARV
Field Goals Made 26.2 25.3
Field Goals Attempted 61.6 56.5
Field Goal % 42.6% 44.8%
2 Pointers Made 16.7 16.9
2 Pointers Attempted 34.7 31.7
2 Point Shooting % 48.3% 53.3%
3 Pointers Made 9.5 8.4
3 Pointers Attempted 26.9 24.8
3 Point Shooting % 35.2% 34.0%
Free Throws Made 10.2 13.0
Free Throws Attempted 14.5 18.6
Free Throw % 70.2% 69.8%
Ball Control PENN HARV
Rebounds 36.7 35.2
Rebounds - Defensive 26.2 27.0
Rebounds - Offensive 10.5 8.1
Turnovers 9.0 9.3
Blocked Shots 2.5 3.3
Steals 5.5 5.0
Fouls 13.8 11.8

Playing Style Advantage: Harvard

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PENN HARV
Total Possessions 69.0
Effective Scoring Chances 70.5 67.8
% of Possessions with PENN HARV
2 Point Attempt 42.9% 40.5%
3 Point Attempt 33.3% 31.8%
Player Fouled 17.1% 20.0%
Turnover 13.1% 13.5%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 8.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken PENN HARV
Shot Blocked 5.9% 4.1%
Offensive Rebound 27.9% 23.7%