NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PENN ALA
Points 73.2 97.7
Total Points   170.9
Points From 2-Pointers 35.1 40.1
Points From 3-Pointers 24.5 41.8
Points From Free Throws 13.5 15.8
Shooting PENN ALA
Field Goals Made 25.7 34.0
Field Goals Attempted 62.1 64.2
Field Goal % 41.4% 52.9%
2 Pointers Made 17.6 20.1
2 Pointers Attempted 36.0 29.9
2 Point Shooting % 48.8% 67.1%
3 Pointers Made 8.2 13.9
3 Pointers Attempted 26.1 34.3
3 Point Shooting % 31.3% 40.5%
Free Throws Made 13.5 15.8
Free Throws Attempted 19.3 20.7
Free Throw % 70.2% 76.4%
Ball Control PENN ALA
Rebounds 31.1 41.2
Rebounds - Defensive 21.8 29.9
Rebounds - Offensive 9.3 11.3
Turnovers 9.9 8.0
Blocked Shots 1.8 4.4
Steals 5.3 5.4
Fouls 15.7 14.7

Playing Style Advantage: U Penn

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PENN ALA
Total Possessions 73.9
Effective Scoring Chances 73.3 77.2
% of Possessions with PENN ALA
2 Point Attempt 42.4% 34.8%
3 Point Attempt 30.7% 40.0%
Player Fouled 19.9% 21.2%
Turnover 13.4% 10.9%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken PENN ALA
Shot Blocked 6.9% 3.0%
Offensive Rebound 23.8% 34.2%