NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PENN STJOE
Points 69.9 82.2
Total Points   152.0
Points From 2-Pointers 32.8 34.7
Points From 3-Pointers 27.1 36.1
Points From Free Throws 10.0 11.4
Shooting PENN STJOE
Field Goals Made 25.4 29.4
Field Goals Attempted 60.2 60.5
Field Goal % 42.2% 48.5%
2 Pointers Made 16.4 17.3
2 Pointers Attempted 33.0 28.5
2 Point Shooting % 49.6% 61.0%
3 Pointers Made 9.0 12.0
3 Pointers Attempted 27.2 32.1
3 Point Shooting % 33.2% 37.5%
Free Throws Made 10.0 11.4
Free Throws Attempted 14.3 15.9
Free Throw % 70.2% 71.9%
Ball Control PENN STJOE
Rebounds 34.2 36.3
Rebounds - Defensive 24.7 27.3
Rebounds - Offensive 9.6 9.0
Turnovers 10.1 8.2
Blocked Shots 2.1 3.4
Steals 5.2 5.7
Fouls 12.9 11.7

Playing Style Advantage: St Josephs

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PENN STJOE
Total Possessions 69.5
Effective Scoring Chances 68.9 70.3
% of Possessions with PENN STJOE
2 Point Attempt 41.0% 35.9%
3 Point Attempt 33.8% 40.4%
Player Fouled 16.8% 18.5%
Turnover 14.6% 11.8%
Opponent Steal 8.2% 7.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken PENN STJOE
Shot Blocked 5.7% 3.5%
Offensive Rebound 25.9% 26.7%