NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PENN VCU
Points 57.1 83.1
Total Points   140.3
Points From 2-Pointers 23.7 39.5
Points From 3-Pointers 20.7 30.4
Points From Free Throws 12.8 13.1
Shooting PENN VCU
Field Goals Made 18.7 29.9
Field Goals Attempted 53.5 64.8
Field Goal % 35.0% 46.2%
2 Pointers Made 11.8 19.8
2 Pointers Attempted 31.4 37.1
2 Point Shooting % 37.7% 53.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.9 10.1
3 Pointers Attempted 22.1 27.7
3 Point Shooting % 31.2% 36.6%
Free Throws Made 12.8 13.1
Free Throws Attempted 19.1 17.4
Free Throw % 66.9% 75.4%
Ball Control PENN VCU
Rebounds 30.9 44.2
Rebounds - Defensive 22.3 29.1
Rebounds - Offensive 8.6 15.1
Turnovers 13.1 7.7
Blocked Shots 1.1 6.2
Steals 3.9 7.3
Fouls 13.6 14.7

Playing Style Advantage: VCU

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PENN VCU
Total Possessions 69.0
Effective Scoring Chances 64.5 76.4
% of Possessions with PENN VCU
2 Point Attempt 39.3% 43.8%
3 Point Attempt 27.6% 32.8%
Player Fouled 21.3% 19.7%
Turnover 18.9% 11.1%
Opponent Steal 10.6% 5.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken PENN VCU
Shot Blocked 9.6% 2.2%
Offensive Rebound 22.8% 40.4%