NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PENN PRIN
Points 71.0 78.8
Total Points   149.9
Points From 2-Pointers 36.6 30.7
Points From 3-Pointers 25.5 35.7
Points From Free Throws 9.0 12.4
Shooting PENN PRIN
Field Goals Made 26.8 27.3
Field Goals Attempted 56.6 57.6
Field Goal % 47.3% 47.3%
2 Pointers Made 18.3 15.4
2 Pointers Attempted 32.0 25.2
2 Point Shooting % 57.1% 61.0%
3 Pointers Made 8.5 11.9
3 Pointers Attempted 24.6 32.4
3 Point Shooting % 34.6% 36.7%
Free Throws Made 9.0 12.4
Free Throws Attempted 12.8 15.8
Free Throw % 70.2% 78.3%
Ball Control PENN PRIN
Rebounds 33.3 31.1
Rebounds - Defensive 26.0 24.8
Rebounds - Offensive 7.3 6.2
Turnovers 9.2 6.0
Blocked Shots 1.4 1.0
Steals 3.6 4.6
Fouls 14.0 11.4

Playing Style Advantage: U Penn

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PENN PRIN
Total Possessions 66.8
Effective Scoring Chances 64.9 67.1
% of Possessions with PENN PRIN
2 Point Attempt 43.0% 34.2%
3 Point Attempt 33.0% 44.1%
Player Fouled 17.0% 21.0%
Turnover 13.8% 9.0%
Opponent Steal 6.8% 5.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken PENN PRIN
Shot Blocked 1.8% 2.5%
Offensive Rebound 22.7% 19.4%