NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PENN VILL
Points 64.4 77.9
Total Points   142.3
Points From 2-Pointers 27.1 30.7
Points From 3-Pointers 29.1 35.0
Points From Free Throws 8.2 12.2
Shooting PENN VILL
Field Goals Made 23.3 27.0
Field Goals Attempted 57.7 57.3
Field Goal % 40.3% 47.2%
2 Pointers Made 13.6 15.3
2 Pointers Attempted 28.1 25.6
2 Point Shooting % 48.2% 59.9%
3 Pointers Made 9.7 11.7
3 Pointers Attempted 29.5 31.6
3 Point Shooting % 32.9% 36.8%
Free Throws Made 8.2 12.2
Free Throws Attempted 11.6 15.3
Free Throw % 70.2% 79.7%
Ball Control PENN VILL
Rebounds 32.1 36.0
Rebounds - Defensive 25.2 29.2
Rebounds - Offensive 6.9 6.7
Turnovers 9.1 7.2
Blocked Shots 1.8 2.4
Steals 4.5 4.7
Fouls 12.3 11.9

Playing Style Advantage: U Penn

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PENN VILL
Total Possessions 66.9
Effective Scoring Chances 64.7 66.4
% of Possessions with PENN VILL
2 Point Attempt 37.6% 34.5%
3 Point Attempt 39.5% 42.5%
Player Fouled 17.8% 18.4%
Turnover 13.6% 10.8%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken PENN VILL
Shot Blocked 4.3% 3.2%
Offensive Rebound 19.2% 21.1%