NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ULL USM
Points 72.8 66.8
Total Points   139.6
Points From 2-Pointers 39.1 36.0
Points From 3-Pointers 20.1 13.4
Points From Free Throws 13.6 17.3
Shooting ULL USM
Field Goals Made 26.3 22.5
Field Goals Attempted 62.2 52.6
Field Goal % 42.2% 42.7%
2 Pointers Made 19.6 18.0
2 Pointers Attempted 41.1 36.5
2 Point Shooting % 47.7% 49.4%
3 Pointers Made 6.7 4.5
3 Pointers Attempted 21.2 16.1
3 Point Shooting % 31.6% 27.8%
Free Throws Made 13.6 17.3
Free Throws Attempted 18.5 24.6
Free Throw % 73.6% 70.5%
Ball Control ULL USM
Rebounds 36.0 36.6
Rebounds - Defensive 24.6 26.9
Rebounds - Offensive 11.4 9.7
Turnovers 10.5 14.0
Blocked Shots 3.1 4.5
Steals 9.0 6.4
Fouls 16.2 14.5

Playing Style Advantage: S Mississippi

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ULL USM
Total Possessions 72.4
Effective Scoring Chances 73.3 68.1
% of Possessions with ULL USM
2 Point Attempt 48.0% 43.8%
3 Point Attempt 24.7% 19.4%
Player Fouled 20.1% 22.4%
Turnover 14.5% 19.3%
Opponent Steal 8.8% 12.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken ULL USM
Shot Blocked 8.6% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 29.8% 28.3%