NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring COLG AMER
Points 68.2 60.2
Total Points   128.4
Points From 2-Pointers 34.9 28.2
Points From 3-Pointers 23.6 23.4
Points From Free Throws 9.7 8.6
Shooting COLG AMER
Field Goals Made 25.3 21.9
Field Goals Attempted 51.9 54.1
Field Goal % 48.8% 40.5%
2 Pointers Made 17.5 14.1
2 Pointers Attempted 30.8 29.0
2 Point Shooting % 56.6% 48.7%
3 Pointers Made 7.9 7.8
3 Pointers Attempted 21.1 25.1
3 Point Shooting % 37.2% 31.0%
Free Throws Made 9.7 8.6
Free Throws Attempted 14.6 12.0
Free Throw % 66.6% 71.6%
Ball Control COLG AMER
Rebounds 33.0 30.4
Rebounds - Defensive 26.2 22.7
Rebounds - Offensive 6.8 7.7
Turnovers 9.1 9.6
Blocked Shots 2.6 1.1
Steals 5.0 4.6
Fouls 11.4 13.1

Playing Style Advantage: Colgate

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats COLG AMER
Total Possessions 63.4
Effective Scoring Chances 61.2 61.6
% of Possessions with COLG AMER
2 Point Attempt 43.6% 40.2%
3 Point Attempt 29.8% 34.9%
Player Fouled 20.6% 18.0%
Turnover 14.3% 15.1%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 7.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken COLG AMER
Shot Blocked 2.1% 5.0%
Offensive Rebound 23.2% 22.8%