NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring COLG PENN
Points 71.8 66.4
Total Points   138.2
Points From 2-Pointers 37.6 32.0
Points From 3-Pointers 24.8 25.2
Points From Free Throws 9.4 9.2
Shooting COLG PENN
Field Goals Made 27.1 24.4
Field Goals Attempted 57.3 58.6
Field Goal % 47.2% 41.7%
2 Pointers Made 18.8 16.0
2 Pointers Attempted 33.5 32.2
2 Point Shooting % 56.2% 49.7%
3 Pointers Made 8.3 8.4
3 Pointers Attempted 23.9 26.3
3 Point Shooting % 34.7% 31.9%
Free Throws Made 9.4 9.2
Free Throws Attempted 14.1 13.1
Free Throw % 66.6% 70.2%
Ball Control COLG PENN
Rebounds 35.0 34.1
Rebounds - Defensive 27.7 25.6
Rebounds - Offensive 7.3 8.4
Turnovers 8.1 8.8
Blocked Shots 2.7 1.6
Steals 4.9 4.7
Fouls 10.7 11.4

Playing Style Advantage: Colgate

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats COLG PENN
Total Possessions 66.8
Effective Scoring Chances 66.0 66.5
% of Possessions with COLG PENN
2 Point Attempt 44.7% 42.2%
3 Point Attempt 31.9% 34.5%
Player Fouled 17.1% 16.1%
Turnover 12.1% 13.1%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 7.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken COLG PENN
Shot Blocked 2.7% 4.8%
Offensive Rebound 22.3% 23.4%