NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HAW UCD
Points 66.5 68.4
Total Points   134.8
Points From 2-Pointers 31.5 39.0
Points From 3-Pointers 18.7 14.1
Points From Free Throws 16.3 15.3
Shooting HAW UCD
Field Goals Made 22.0 24.2
Field Goals Attempted 49.5 53.9
Field Goal % 44.4% 44.9%
2 Pointers Made 15.8 19.5
2 Pointers Attempted 30.4 38.6
2 Point Shooting % 51.8% 50.5%
3 Pointers Made 6.2 4.7
3 Pointers Attempted 19.1 15.3
3 Point Shooting % 32.6% 30.8%
Free Throws Made 16.3 15.3
Free Throws Attempted 22.4 20.1
Free Throw % 72.5% 76.1%
Ball Control HAW UCD
Rebounds 32.9 30.6
Rebounds - Defensive 25.4 23.5
Rebounds - Offensive 7.5 7.1
Turnovers 14.0 10.8
Blocked Shots 2.0 2.8
Steals 4.5 7.2
Fouls 17.0 18.1

Playing Style Advantage: UC Davis

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HAW UCD
Total Possessions 70.0
Effective Scoring Chances 63.5 66.3
% of Possessions with HAW UCD
2 Point Attempt 38.7% 49.6%
3 Point Attempt 24.3% 19.6%
Player Fouled 25.8% 24.3%
Turnover 20.0% 15.4%
Opponent Steal 10.3% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken HAW UCD
Shot Blocked 5.2% 4.2%
Offensive Rebound 24.2% 21.7%