NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HAW UCD
Points 65.1 65.8
Total Points   130.9
Points From 2-Pointers 30.5 33.6
Points From 3-Pointers 16.4 16.5
Points From Free Throws 18.2 15.7
Shooting HAW UCD
Field Goals Made 20.7 22.3
Field Goals Attempted 48.7 55.8
Field Goal % 42.5% 39.9%
2 Pointers Made 15.2 16.8
2 Pointers Attempted 31.8 39.6
2 Point Shooting % 47.9% 42.4%
3 Pointers Made 5.5 5.5
3 Pointers Attempted 16.9 16.2
3 Point Shooting % 32.3% 34.0%
Free Throws Made 18.2 15.7
Free Throws Attempted 24.2 20.9
Free Throw % 75.3% 75.3%
Ball Control HAW UCD
Rebounds 38.4 29.4
Rebounds - Defensive 28.2 21.1
Rebounds - Offensive 10.2 8.3
Turnovers 14.8 8.5
Blocked Shots 1.7 3.4
Steals 3.2 7.8
Fouls 17.5 18.0

Playing Style Advantage: UC Davis

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HAW UCD
Total Possessions 68.9
Effective Scoring Chances 64.3 68.7
% of Possessions with HAW UCD
2 Point Attempt 39.6% 50.8%
3 Point Attempt 21.0% 20.8%
Player Fouled 26.1% 25.4%
Turnover 21.5% 12.4%
Opponent Steal 11.3% 4.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken HAW UCD
Shot Blocked 6.1% 3.6%
Offensive Rebound 32.6% 22.8%