NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HAW CP
Points 72.8 60.5
Total Points   133.4
Points From 2-Pointers 36.4 34.9
Points From 3-Pointers 18.2 13.5
Points From Free Throws 18.2 12.2
Shooting HAW CP
Field Goals Made 24.3 21.9
Field Goals Attempted 51.0 54.9
Field Goal % 47.6% 40.0%
2 Pointers Made 18.2 17.5
2 Pointers Attempted 33.7 40.6
2 Point Shooting % 54.1% 43.0%
3 Pointers Made 6.1 4.5
3 Pointers Attempted 17.4 14.3
3 Point Shooting % 35.0% 31.4%
Free Throws Made 18.2 12.2
Free Throws Attempted 25.1 17.2
Free Throw % 72.5% 70.9%
Ball Control HAW CP
Rebounds 37.9 28.5
Rebounds - Defensive 29.2 22.0
Rebounds - Offensive 8.7 6.5
Turnovers 11.3 10.3
Blocked Shots 2.3 2.8
Steals 4.2 4.8
Fouls 15.9 17.9

Playing Style Advantage: Cal Poly

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HAW CP
Total Possessions 69.1
Effective Scoring Chances 66.5 65.3
% of Possessions with HAW CP
2 Point Attempt 42.6% 53.1%
3 Point Attempt 22.0% 18.6%
Player Fouled 25.9% 23.1%
Turnover 16.4% 14.9%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 6.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken HAW CP
Shot Blocked 5.1% 4.6%
Offensive Rebound 28.4% 18.2%