NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring L-IL ILST
Points 69.3 61.4
Total Points   130.8
Points From 2-Pointers 35.0 30.0
Points From 3-Pointers 23.1 15.5
Points From Free Throws 11.2 16.0
Shooting L-IL ILST
Field Goals Made 25.2 20.1
Field Goals Attempted 55.0 52.4
Field Goal % 45.9% 38.4%
2 Pointers Made 17.5 15.0
2 Pointers Attempted 31.5 34.4
2 Point Shooting % 55.5% 43.6%
3 Pointers Made 7.7 5.2
3 Pointers Attempted 23.4 18.0
3 Point Shooting % 32.9% 28.6%
Free Throws Made 11.2 16.0
Free Throws Attempted 16.5 21.9
Free Throw % 67.6% 73.0%
Ball Control L-IL ILST
Rebounds 35.0 32.9
Rebounds - Defensive 26.7 24.5
Rebounds - Offensive 8.3 8.4
Turnovers 10.6 10.9
Blocked Shots 5.2 2.6
Steals 5.5 5.1
Fouls 18.7 15.1

Playing Style Advantage: Illinois St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats L-IL ILST
Total Possessions 67.6
Effective Scoring Chances 65.2 65.1
% of Possessions with L-IL ILST
2 Point Attempt 41.0% 44.1%
3 Point Attempt 30.5% 23.1%
Player Fouled 22.4% 27.6%
Turnover 15.7% 16.2%
Opponent Steal 7.6% 8.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken L-IL ILST
Shot Blocked 5.2% 9.5%
Offensive Rebound 25.2% 23.9%