NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring L-IL SIU
Points 69.9 66.4
Total Points   136.3
Points From 2-Pointers 39.5 27.8
Points From 3-Pointers 15.6 21.2
Points From Free Throws 14.8 17.4
Shooting L-IL SIU
Field Goals Made 24.9 21.0
Field Goals Attempted 52.8 52.4
Field Goal % 47.2% 40.0%
2 Pointers Made 19.7 13.9
2 Pointers Attempted 36.5 30.9
2 Point Shooting % 54.1% 44.9%
3 Pointers Made 5.2 7.1
3 Pointers Attempted 16.3 21.4
3 Point Shooting % 31.9% 33.0%
Free Throws Made 14.8 17.4
Free Throws Attempted 21.9 22.6
Free Throw % 67.6% 77.2%
Ball Control L-IL SIU
Rebounds 34.1 31.4
Rebounds - Defensive 26.5 24.2
Rebounds - Offensive 7.6 7.2
Turnovers 10.9 11.4
Blocked Shots 6.0 3.7
Steals 6.2 5.1
Fouls 19.0 17.9

Playing Style Advantage: S Illinois

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats L-IL SIU
Total Possessions 69.2
Effective Scoring Chances 65.8 65.0
% of Possessions with L-IL SIU
2 Point Attempt 46.6% 39.3%
3 Point Attempt 20.9% 27.2%
Player Fouled 25.8% 27.4%
Turnover 15.8% 16.4%
Opponent Steal 7.4% 9.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken L-IL SIU
Shot Blocked 7.3% 11.5%
Offensive Rebound 23.8% 21.3%