NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CSU USU
Points 71.5 70.5
Total Points   142.0
Points From 2-Pointers 39.8 38.7
Points From 3-Pointers 18.5 15.7
Points From Free Throws 13.2 16.1
Shooting CSU USU
Field Goals Made 26.0 24.6
Field Goals Attempted 56.3 54.6
Field Goal % 46.2% 45.0%
2 Pointers Made 19.9 19.3
2 Pointers Attempted 35.6 37.8
2 Point Shooting % 55.9% 51.1%
3 Pointers Made 6.2 5.2
3 Pointers Attempted 20.8 16.8
3 Point Shooting % 29.7% 31.2%
Free Throws Made 13.2 16.1
Free Throws Attempted 17.7 22.2
Free Throw % 74.7% 72.5%
Ball Control CSU USU
Rebounds 31.9 34.4
Rebounds - Defensive 25.2 26.0
Rebounds - Offensive 6.7 8.4
Turnovers 9.2 9.4
Blocked Shots 2.0 2.9
Steals 5.1 5.0
Fouls 16.7 15.5

Playing Style Advantage: Colorado St

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CSU USU
Total Possessions 69.3
Effective Scoring Chances 66.7 68.3
% of Possessions with CSU USU
2 Point Attempt 46.1% 48.2%
3 Point Attempt 26.9% 21.4%
Player Fouled 22.4% 24.1%
Turnover 13.3% 13.5%
Opponent Steal 7.2% 7.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken CSU USU
Shot Blocked 5.4% 3.5%
Offensive Rebound 20.4% 24.9%