NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CSU SDSU
Points 66.2 68.0
Total Points   134.1
Points From 2-Pointers 31.5 34.8
Points From 3-Pointers 20.9 17.5
Points From Free Throws 13.8 15.7
Shooting CSU SDSU
Field Goals Made 22.7 23.2
Field Goals Attempted 53.7 56.0
Field Goal % 42.3% 41.5%
2 Pointers Made 15.7 17.4
2 Pointers Attempted 31.2 36.6
2 Point Shooting % 50.5% 47.6%
3 Pointers Made 7.0 5.8
3 Pointers Attempted 22.6 19.4
3 Point Shooting % 30.9% 30.0%
Free Throws Made 13.8 15.7
Free Throws Attempted 18.4 21.3
Free Throw % 74.7% 73.7%
Ball Control CSU SDSU
Rebounds 32.1 37.3
Rebounds - Defensive 24.5 25.9
Rebounds - Offensive 7.6 11.4
Turnovers 10.4 9.5
Blocked Shots 2.3 3.2
Steals 5.1 5.9
Fouls 16.4 16.3

Playing Style Advantage: San Diego St

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CSU SDSU
Total Possessions 67.6
Effective Scoring Chances 64.8 69.5
% of Possessions with CSU SDSU
2 Point Attempt 40.8% 45.8%
3 Point Attempt 29.5% 24.3%
Player Fouled 24.1% 24.3%
Turnover 15.4% 14.1%
Opponent Steal 8.7% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken CSU SDSU
Shot Blocked 5.7% 4.3%
Offensive Rebound 22.7% 31.8%