NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring VCU SLU
Points 79.0 66.4
Total Points   145.4
Points From 2-Pointers 31.8 29.3
Points From 3-Pointers 30.6 21.1
Points From Free Throws 16.6 16.1
Shooting VCU SLU
Field Goals Made 26.1 21.7
Field Goals Attempted 55.5 54.0
Field Goal % 47.1% 40.1%
2 Pointers Made 15.9 14.6
2 Pointers Attempted 29.0 32.7
2 Point Shooting % 54.7% 44.8%
3 Pointers Made 10.2 7.0
3 Pointers Attempted 26.4 21.4
3 Point Shooting % 38.7% 32.9%
Free Throws Made 16.6 16.1
Free Throws Attempted 21.4 21.4
Free Throw % 77.2% 75.1%
Ball Control VCU SLU
Rebounds 35.3 31.8
Rebounds - Defensive 26.6 23.5
Rebounds - Offensive 8.7 8.3
Turnovers 8.8 10.6
Blocked Shots 4.7 1.9
Steals 6.5 5.5
Fouls 15.3 15.6

Playing Style Advantage: Saint Louis

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats VCU SLU
Total Possessions 68.8
Effective Scoring Chances 68.7 66.5
% of Possessions with VCU SLU
2 Point Attempt 37.1% 41.4%
3 Point Attempt 33.7% 27.0%
Player Fouled 22.7% 22.2%
Turnover 12.8% 15.4%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 9.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken VCU SLU
Shot Blocked 3.6% 8.5%
Offensive Rebound 27.0% 23.7%