NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CSU AFA
Points 74.6 60.3
Total Points   135.0
Points From 2-Pointers 38.3 27.9
Points From 3-Pointers 20.4 22.3
Points From Free Throws 15.9 10.2
Shooting CSU AFA
Field Goals Made 26.0 21.4
Field Goals Attempted 49.0 51.0
Field Goal % 52.9% 41.9%
2 Pointers Made 19.2 14.0
2 Pointers Attempted 30.8 29.1
2 Point Shooting % 62.3% 47.9%
3 Pointers Made 6.8 7.4
3 Pointers Attempted 18.3 21.8
3 Point Shooting % 37.2% 34.0%
Free Throws Made 15.9 10.2
Free Throws Attempted 21.3 14.8
Free Throw % 74.7% 68.7%
Ball Control CSU AFA
Rebounds 32.0 26.2
Rebounds - Defensive 25.0 19.1
Rebounds - Offensive 7.0 7.1
Turnovers 9.2 11.0
Blocked Shots 2.9 2.6
Steals 5.2 5.0
Fouls 14.6 16.6

Playing Style Advantage: Air Force

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CSU AFA
Total Possessions 64.0
Effective Scoring Chances 61.8 60.0
% of Possessions with CSU AFA
2 Point Attempt 42.7% 40.3%
3 Point Attempt 25.4% 30.2%
Player Fouled 25.9% 22.8%
Turnover 14.4% 17.2%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 8.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken CSU AFA
Shot Blocked 5.3% 6.1%
Offensive Rebound 26.9% 22.1%