NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring VCU DAY
Points 66.2 71.3
Total Points   137.5
Points From 2-Pointers 33.7 35.5
Points From 3-Pointers 18.7 21.2
Points From Free Throws 13.8 14.5
Shooting VCU DAY
Field Goals Made 23.1 24.8
Field Goals Attempted 58.0 51.8
Field Goal % 39.7% 48.0%
2 Pointers Made 16.8 17.8
2 Pointers Attempted 39.9 32.5
2 Point Shooting % 42.2% 54.7%
3 Pointers Made 6.2 7.1
3 Pointers Attempted 18.1 19.3
3 Point Shooting % 34.4% 36.6%
Free Throws Made 13.8 14.5
Free Throws Attempted 19.1 19.8
Free Throw % 72.3% 73.6%
Ball Control VCU DAY
Rebounds 31.4 36.1
Rebounds - Defensive 21.8 28.1
Rebounds - Offensive 9.7 8.0
Turnovers 11.5 15.7
Blocked Shots 3.8 3.0
Steals 7.4 5.6
Fouls 17.3 15.3

Playing Style Advantage: Dayton

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats VCU DAY
Total Possessions 71.8
Effective Scoring Chances 69.9 64.1
% of Possessions with VCU DAY
2 Point Attempt 48.3% 39.9%
3 Point Attempt 21.9% 23.8%
Player Fouled 21.3% 24.0%
Turnover 16.1% 21.8%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 10.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken VCU DAY
Shot Blocked 5.9% 6.7%
Offensive Rebound 25.6% 26.8%