NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring VCU DAY
Points 65.5 67.2
Total Points   132.7
Points From 2-Pointers 29.1 27.4
Points From 3-Pointers 26.7 24.9
Points From Free Throws 9.8 14.8
Shooting VCU DAY
Field Goals Made 23.4 22.0
Field Goals Attempted 56.5 52.4
Field Goal % 41.5% 42.0%
2 Pointers Made 14.5 13.7
2 Pointers Attempted 29.9 28.8
2 Point Shooting % 48.6% 47.6%
3 Pointers Made 8.9 8.3
3 Pointers Attempted 26.6 23.6
3 Point Shooting % 33.5% 35.2%
Free Throws Made 9.8 14.8
Free Throws Attempted 12.7 19.8
Free Throw % 77.2% 74.7%
Ball Control VCU DAY
Rebounds 33.7 33.7
Rebounds - Defensive 25.4 26.2
Rebounds - Offensive 8.3 7.5
Turnovers 9.7 9.4
Blocked Shots 3.7 2.3
Steals 5.5 5.5
Fouls 14.6 11.8

Playing Style Advantage: Dayton

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats VCU DAY
Total Possessions 65.9
Effective Scoring Chances 64.5 64.0
% of Possessions with VCU DAY
2 Point Attempt 39.8% 38.5%
3 Point Attempt 35.4% 31.5%
Player Fouled 17.9% 22.2%
Turnover 14.8% 14.3%
Opponent Steal 8.3% 8.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken VCU DAY
Shot Blocked 4.4% 6.7%
Offensive Rebound 24.1% 22.9%