NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CSU LMU
Points 75.6 63.1
Total Points   138.7
Points From 2-Pointers 43.5 32.5
Points From 3-Pointers 19.2 19.3
Points From Free Throws 12.9 11.3
Shooting CSU LMU
Field Goals Made 28.2 22.7
Field Goals Attempted 55.8 56.7
Field Goal % 50.5% 40.0%
2 Pointers Made 21.8 16.3
2 Pointers Attempted 37.0 37.1
2 Point Shooting % 58.9% 43.9%
3 Pointers Made 6.4 6.4
3 Pointers Attempted 18.8 19.6
3 Point Shooting % 34.0% 32.7%
Free Throws Made 12.9 11.3
Free Throws Attempted 17.3 15.3
Free Throw % 74.7% 73.7%
Ball Control CSU LMU
Rebounds 32.8 33.1
Rebounds - Defensive 26.0 23.2
Rebounds - Offensive 6.8 9.9
Turnovers 6.3 9.3
Blocked Shots 3.5 2.1
Steals 4.7 2.6
Fouls 13.2 15.0

Playing Style Advantage: Colorado St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CSU LMU
Total Possessions 65.4
Effective Scoring Chances 66.0 66.0
% of Possessions with CSU LMU
2 Point Attempt 50.6% 48.3%
3 Point Attempt 25.7% 25.6%
Player Fouled 23.0% 20.1%
Turnover 9.6% 14.2%
Opponent Steal 3.9% 7.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken CSU LMU
Shot Blocked 3.7% 6.3%
Offensive Rebound 22.7% 27.6%