NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring URI GMU
Points 65.9 76.9
Total Points   142.8
Points From 2-Pointers 30.9 39.2
Points From 3-Pointers 21.1 22.7
Points From Free Throws 14.0 14.9
Shooting URI GMU
Field Goals Made 22.5 27.2
Field Goals Attempted 53.2 56.4
Field Goal % 42.3% 48.2%
2 Pointers Made 15.4 19.6
2 Pointers Attempted 32.9 34.7
2 Point Shooting % 47.0% 56.5%
3 Pointers Made 7.0 7.6
3 Pointers Attempted 20.3 21.6
3 Point Shooting % 34.6% 35.0%
Free Throws Made 14.0 14.9
Free Throws Attempted 21.1 20.2
Free Throw % 66.1% 74.1%
Ball Control URI GMU
Rebounds 31.8 34.7
Rebounds - Defensive 22.5 25.2
Rebounds - Offensive 9.3 9.6
Turnovers 10.9 8.4
Blocked Shots 2.9 4.3
Steals 4.4 5.5
Fouls 16.0 16.2

Playing Style Advantage: Geo Mason

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats URI GMU
Total Possessions 67.4
Effective Scoring Chances 65.8 68.5
% of Possessions with URI GMU
2 Point Attempt 41.9% 44.4%
3 Point Attempt 25.9% 27.7%
Player Fouled 24.0% 23.8%
Turnover 16.2% 12.5%
Opponent Steal 8.2% 6.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken URI GMU
Shot Blocked 7.7% 5.6%
Offensive Rebound 27.0% 29.8%