NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ARK BAY
Points 74.1 81.6
Total Points   155.6
Points From 2-Pointers 39.6 37.6
Points From 3-Pointers 16.0 22.0
Points From Free Throws 18.5 22.0
Shooting ARK BAY
Field Goals Made 25.1 26.1
Field Goals Attempted 54.1 56.5
Field Goal % 46.4% 46.3%
2 Pointers Made 19.8 18.8
2 Pointers Attempted 37.2 37.1
2 Point Shooting % 53.2% 50.7%
3 Pointers Made 5.3 7.3
3 Pointers Attempted 16.9 19.4
3 Point Shooting % 31.5% 37.7%
Free Throws Made 18.5 22.0
Free Throws Attempted 24.1 30.0
Free Throw % 76.5% 73.1%
Ball Control ARK BAY
Rebounds 29.7 37.3
Rebounds - Defensive 23.4 25.9
Rebounds - Offensive 6.3 11.4
Turnovers 10.9 10.3
Blocked Shots 5.0 2.4
Steals 6.0 5.9
Fouls 19.4 18.9

Playing Style Advantage: Arkansas

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ARK BAY
Total Possessions 73.2
Effective Scoring Chances 68.6 74.3
% of Possessions with ARK BAY
2 Point Attempt 46.3% 42.9%
3 Point Attempt 21.0% 22.4%
Player Fouled 25.8% 26.5%
Turnover 14.9% 14.1%
Opponent Steal 8.1% 8.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken ARK BAY
Shot Blocked 4.4% 9.3%
Offensive Rebound 19.5% 32.7%