NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ARK MSST
Points 72.5 77.1
Total Points   149.6
Points From 2-Pointers 38.4 40.8
Points From 3-Pointers 15.9 18.7
Points From Free Throws 18.1 17.6
Shooting ARK MSST
Field Goals Made 24.5 26.6
Field Goals Attempted 54.5 58.7
Field Goal % 45.0% 45.4%
2 Pointers Made 19.2 20.4
2 Pointers Attempted 35.3 39.3
2 Point Shooting % 54.5% 51.9%
3 Pointers Made 5.3 6.2
3 Pointers Attempted 19.2 19.4
3 Point Shooting % 27.7% 32.2%
Free Throws Made 18.1 17.6
Free Throws Attempted 23.7 26.9
Free Throw % 76.5% 65.5%
Ball Control ARK MSST
Rebounds 32.1 38.1
Rebounds - Defensive 24.9 25.8
Rebounds - Offensive 7.3 12.3
Turnovers 12.3 11.2
Blocked Shots 4.7 2.5
Steals 6.0 7.2
Fouls 17.8 18.1

Playing Style Advantage: Arkansas

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ARK MSST
Total Possessions 73.9
Effective Scoring Chances 68.9 75.0
% of Possessions with ARK MSST
2 Point Attempt 42.9% 44.6%
3 Point Attempt 23.4% 22.0%
Player Fouled 24.4% 24.0%
Turnover 16.6% 15.2%
Opponent Steal 9.8% 8.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken ARK MSST
Shot Blocked 4.4% 8.7%
Offensive Rebound 22.0% 33.1%