NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ARK ALA
Points 81.0 92.4
Total Points   173.4
Points From 2-Pointers 40.6 41.0
Points From 3-Pointers 15.5 28.8
Points From Free Throws 24.9 22.6
Shooting ARK ALA
Field Goals Made 25.5 30.1
Field Goals Attempted 57.6 64.2
Field Goal % 44.3% 46.8%
2 Pointers Made 20.3 20.5
2 Pointers Attempted 39.7 37.6
2 Point Shooting % 51.1% 54.5%
3 Pointers Made 5.2 9.6
3 Pointers Attempted 17.8 26.6
3 Point Shooting % 29.1% 36.0%
Free Throws Made 24.9 22.6
Free Throws Attempted 32.5 29.6
Free Throw % 76.5% 76.5%
Ball Control ARK ALA
Rebounds 33.5 40.5
Rebounds - Defensive 25.2 28.0
Rebounds - Offensive 8.4 12.5
Turnovers 11.0 10.3
Blocked Shots 5.4 3.7
Steals 6.4 6.2
Fouls 20.0 21.4

Playing Style Advantage: Arkansas

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ARK ALA
Total Possessions 79.4
Effective Scoring Chances 76.8 81.6
% of Possessions with ARK ALA
2 Point Attempt 44.5% 40.0%
3 Point Attempt 20.0% 28.3%
Player Fouled 27.0% 25.2%
Turnover 13.8% 13.0%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 8.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken ARK ALA
Shot Blocked 5.9% 9.5%
Offensive Rebound 23.0% 33.3%