NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ARK SCAR
Points 85.0 69.8
Total Points   154.9
Points From 2-Pointers 45.1 38.4
Points From 3-Pointers 21.0 19.9
Points From Free Throws 19.0 11.6
Shooting ARK SCAR
Field Goals Made 29.5 25.8
Field Goals Attempted 61.1 66.5
Field Goal % 48.3% 38.8%
2 Pointers Made 22.5 19.2
2 Pointers Attempted 41.3 44.4
2 Point Shooting % 54.6% 43.2%
3 Pointers Made 7.0 6.6
3 Pointers Attempted 19.9 22.2
3 Point Shooting % 35.2% 30.0%
Free Throws Made 19.0 11.6
Free Throws Attempted 25.4 17.6
Free Throw % 74.9% 65.6%
Ball Control ARK SCAR
Rebounds 41.9 36.8
Rebounds - Defensive 31.7 24.8
Rebounds - Offensive 10.2 11.9
Turnovers 13.5 14.4
Blocked Shots 5.2 4.1
Steals 7.7 6.8
Fouls 14.7 17.9

Playing Style Advantage: Arkansas

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ARK SCAR
Total Possessions 79.9
Effective Scoring Chances 76.6 77.5
% of Possessions with ARK SCAR
2 Point Attempt 45.0% 47.3%
3 Point Attempt 21.6% 23.6%
Player Fouled 22.3% 18.4%
Turnover 16.9% 18.0%
Opponent Steal 8.5% 9.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken ARK SCAR
Shot Blocked 6.3% 8.7%
Offensive Rebound 29.1% 27.3%