NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ARK SCAR
Points 73.5 74.6
Total Points   148.1
Points From 2-Pointers 41.7 36.6
Points From 3-Pointers 13.8 21.3
Points From Free Throws 18.0 16.7
Shooting ARK SCAR
Field Goals Made 25.5 25.4
Field Goals Attempted 55.5 60.2
Field Goal % 45.8% 42.1%
2 Pointers Made 20.9 18.3
2 Pointers Attempted 40.9 39.0
2 Point Shooting % 51.0% 46.9%
3 Pointers Made 4.6 7.1
3 Pointers Attempted 14.6 21.2
3 Point Shooting % 31.4% 33.4%
Free Throws Made 18.0 16.7
Free Throws Attempted 23.5 23.7
Free Throw % 76.5% 70.6%
Ball Control ARK SCAR
Rebounds 34.5 36.7
Rebounds - Defensive 27.3 25.9
Rebounds - Offensive 7.2 10.9
Turnovers 9.2 8.8
Blocked Shots 6.5 2.8
Steals 4.9 4.3
Fouls 16.6 17.7

Playing Style Advantage: Arkansas

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ARK SCAR
Total Possessions 71.4
Effective Scoring Chances 69.4 73.4
% of Possessions with ARK SCAR
2 Point Attempt 51.3% 46.0%
3 Point Attempt 18.3% 25.0%
Player Fouled 24.8% 23.2%
Turnover 12.9% 12.4%
Opponent Steal 6.0% 6.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken ARK SCAR
Shot Blocked 4.9% 11.8%
Offensive Rebound 21.8% 28.5%