NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ARK FLA
Points 80.1 86.2
Total Points   166.3
Points From 2-Pointers 42.2 43.3
Points From 3-Pointers 14.9 19.8
Points From Free Throws 23.1 23.1
Shooting ARK FLA
Field Goals Made 26.0 28.3
Field Goals Attempted 58.6 64.0
Field Goal % 44.4% 44.1%
2 Pointers Made 21.1 21.6
2 Pointers Attempted 42.8 44.7
2 Point Shooting % 49.3% 48.4%
3 Pointers Made 5.0 6.6
3 Pointers Attempted 15.8 19.3
3 Point Shooting % 31.3% 34.3%
Free Throws Made 23.1 23.1
Free Throws Attempted 30.2 31.5
Free Throw % 76.5% 73.2%
Ball Control ARK FLA
Rebounds 34.3 42.4
Rebounds - Defensive 26.6 28.6
Rebounds - Offensive 7.7 13.8
Turnovers 10.2 9.6
Blocked Shots 4.8 4.2
Steals 5.9 6.0
Fouls 19.1 20.0

Playing Style Advantage: Arkansas

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ARK FLA
Total Possessions 78.6
Effective Scoring Chances 76.1 82.8
% of Possessions with ARK FLA
2 Point Attempt 48.6% 47.4%
3 Point Attempt 18.0% 20.5%
Player Fouled 25.5% 24.3%
Turnover 13.0% 12.2%
Opponent Steal 7.6% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken ARK FLA
Shot Blocked 6.8% 8.3%
Offensive Rebound 21.3% 34.2%