NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ARK LSU
Points 77.1 77.5
Total Points   154.6
Points From 2-Pointers 38.9 36.8
Points From 3-Pointers 17.9 20.4
Points From Free Throws 20.4 20.3
Shooting ARK LSU
Field Goals Made 25.4 25.2
Field Goals Attempted 56.0 58.3
Field Goal % 45.3% 43.2%
2 Pointers Made 19.4 18.4
2 Pointers Attempted 36.9 39.3
2 Point Shooting % 52.7% 46.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.0 6.8
3 Pointers Attempted 19.1 19.0
3 Point Shooting % 31.2% 35.9%
Free Throws Made 20.4 20.3
Free Throws Attempted 26.6 27.6
Free Throw % 76.5% 73.3%
Ball Control ARK LSU
Rebounds 34.5 36.5
Rebounds - Defensive 26.6 26.2
Rebounds - Offensive 7.9 10.3
Turnovers 11.7 11.7
Blocked Shots 5.6 2.9
Steals 7.2 6.8
Fouls 17.2 18.3

Playing Style Advantage: Arkansas

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ARK LSU
Total Possessions 75.8
Effective Scoring Chances 72.1 74.4
% of Possessions with ARK LSU
2 Point Attempt 43.5% 44.5%
3 Point Attempt 22.5% 21.5%
Player Fouled 24.2% 22.7%
Turnover 15.4% 15.4%
Opponent Steal 9.0% 9.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken ARK LSU
Shot Blocked 5.1% 10.1%
Offensive Rebound 23.3% 27.9%