NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ARK MIZZ
Points 78.5 76.7
Total Points   155.2
Points From 2-Pointers 41.5 34.2
Points From 3-Pointers 19.7 24.3
Points From Free Throws 17.3 18.2
Shooting ARK MIZZ
Field Goals Made 27.3 25.2
Field Goals Attempted 55.5 60.3
Field Goal % 49.2% 41.8%
2 Pointers Made 20.7 17.1
2 Pointers Attempted 36.3 36.7
2 Point Shooting % 57.2% 46.6%
3 Pointers Made 6.6 8.1
3 Pointers Attempted 19.2 23.6
3 Point Shooting % 34.2% 34.3%
Free Throws Made 17.3 18.2
Free Throws Attempted 23.7 24.5
Free Throw % 73.0% 74.2%
Ball Control ARK MIZZ
Rebounds 35.7 34.6
Rebounds - Defensive 26.5 22.8
Rebounds - Offensive 9.2 11.8
Turnovers 11.8 10.0
Blocked Shots 4.8 1.8
Steals 6.4 7.6
Fouls 16.4 17.6

Playing Style Advantage: Missouri

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ARK MIZZ
Total Possessions 73.1
Effective Scoring Chances 70.5 74.9
% of Possessions with ARK MIZZ
2 Point Attempt 43.7% 42.3%
3 Point Attempt 23.1% 27.2%
Player Fouled 24.0% 22.4%
Turnover 16.2% 13.7%
Opponent Steal 10.4% 8.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken ARK MIZZ
Shot Blocked 3.0% 8.6%
Offensive Rebound 28.7% 30.8%