NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ARK UK
Points 78.5 88.9
Total Points   167.5
Points From 2-Pointers 37.4 44.7
Points From 3-Pointers 19.4 24.4
Points From Free Throws 21.7 19.9
Shooting ARK UK
Field Goals Made 25.2 30.5
Field Goals Attempted 60.0 63.8
Field Goal % 41.9% 47.7%
2 Pointers Made 18.7 22.3
2 Pointers Attempted 40.1 43.3
2 Point Shooting % 46.7% 51.5%
3 Pointers Made 6.5 8.1
3 Pointers Attempted 20.0 20.5
3 Point Shooting % 32.4% 39.6%
Free Throws Made 21.7 19.9
Free Throws Attempted 28.4 25.4
Free Throw % 76.5% 78.2%
Ball Control ARK UK
Rebounds 35.3 39.1
Rebounds - Defensive 26.8 29.8
Rebounds - Offensive 8.5 9.3
Turnovers 11.1 9.8
Blocked Shots 4.6 5.1
Steals 5.6 6.6
Fouls 17.8 18.9

Playing Style Advantage: Arkansas

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ARK UK
Total Possessions 79.0
Effective Scoring Chances 76.4 78.5
% of Possessions with ARK UK
2 Point Attempt 44.8% 48.0%
3 Point Attempt 22.3% 22.7%
Player Fouled 23.9% 22.5%
Turnover 14.0% 12.4%
Opponent Steal 8.3% 7.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken ARK UK
Shot Blocked 8.2% 7.9%
Offensive Rebound 22.1% 25.8%