NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ARK MICH
Points 71.1 72.7
Total Points   143.8
Points From 2-Pointers 35.9 35.4
Points From 3-Pointers 21.1 22.6
Points From Free Throws 14.1 14.7
Shooting ARK MICH
Field Goals Made 25.0 25.2
Field Goals Attempted 62.8 61.1
Field Goal % 39.8% 41.4%
2 Pointers Made 17.9 17.7
2 Pointers Attempted 39.2 37.1
2 Point Shooting % 45.8% 47.7%
3 Pointers Made 7.0 7.5
3 Pointers Attempted 23.7 23.9
3 Point Shooting % 29.8% 31.5%
Free Throws Made 14.1 14.7
Free Throws Attempted 19.2 20.3
Free Throw % 73.1% 72.3%
Ball Control ARK MICH
Rebounds 37.5 41.9
Rebounds - Defensive 26.9 30.2
Rebounds - Offensive 10.6 11.8
Turnovers 9.6 11.9
Blocked Shots 4.0 2.3
Steals 6.9 4.6
Fouls 15.4 15.2

Playing Style Advantage: Michigan

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ARK MICH
Total Possessions 73.9
Effective Scoring Chances 74.9 73.7
% of Possessions with ARK MICH
2 Point Attempt 45.9% 42.6%
3 Point Attempt 27.7% 27.4%
Player Fouled 20.5% 20.9%
Turnover 13.0% 16.1%
Opponent Steal 6.2% 9.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken ARK MICH
Shot Blocked 3.8% 6.4%
Offensive Rebound 26.0% 30.4%