NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNLV USU
Points 67.7 73.1
Total Points   140.9
Points From 2-Pointers 33.0 33.5
Points From 3-Pointers 19.7 25.0
Points From Free Throws 15.1 14.6
Shooting UNLV USU
Field Goals Made 23.0 25.1
Field Goals Attempted 51.4 56.1
Field Goal % 44.8% 44.7%
2 Pointers Made 16.5 16.7
2 Pointers Attempted 31.6 30.2
2 Point Shooting % 52.1% 55.4%
3 Pointers Made 6.6 8.3
3 Pointers Attempted 19.8 25.9
3 Point Shooting % 33.1% 32.2%
Free Throws Made 15.1 14.6
Free Throws Attempted 21.6 20.9
Free Throw % 69.9% 70.0%
Ball Control UNLV USU
Rebounds 32.0 34.6
Rebounds - Defensive 23.5 23.6
Rebounds - Offensive 8.5 11.0
Turnovers 10.9 9.1
Blocked Shots 3.1 2.9
Steals 5.8 6.4
Fouls 14.8 17.2

Playing Style Advantage: UNLV

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNLV USU
Total Possessions 67.1
Effective Scoring Chances 64.7 69.0
% of Possessions with UNLV USU
2 Point Attempt 41.2% 38.1%
3 Point Attempt 25.8% 32.6%
Player Fouled 25.7% 22.0%
Turnover 16.2% 13.6%
Opponent Steal 9.6% 8.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNLV USU
Shot Blocked 5.2% 6.2%
Offensive Rebound 26.5% 31.8%