NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNLV USU
Points 74.3 83.5
Total Points   157.9
Points From 2-Pointers 35.3 40.5
Points From 3-Pointers 23.2 22.7
Points From Free Throws 15.9 20.4
Shooting UNLV USU
Field Goals Made 25.4 27.8
Field Goals Attempted 54.9 56.1
Field Goal % 46.2% 49.6%
2 Pointers Made 17.6 20.2
2 Pointers Attempted 34.2 35.7
2 Point Shooting % 51.5% 56.7%
3 Pointers Made 7.7 7.6
3 Pointers Attempted 20.6 20.3
3 Point Shooting % 37.4% 37.1%
Free Throws Made 15.9 20.4
Free Throws Attempted 23.5 28.8
Free Throw % 67.6% 70.7%
Ball Control UNLV USU
Rebounds 33.5 33.4
Rebounds - Defensive 22.8 23.3
Rebounds - Offensive 10.7 10.2
Turnovers 12.7 9.1
Blocked Shots 4.4 2.5
Steals 5.1 7.4
Fouls 19.0 17.3

Playing Style Advantage: Utah St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNLV USU
Total Possessions 71.9
Effective Scoring Chances 69.9 73.0
% of Possessions with UNLV USU
2 Point Attempt 40.9% 42.6%
3 Point Attempt 24.7% 24.3%
Player Fouled 24.0% 26.4%
Turnover 17.6% 12.7%
Opponent Steal 10.3% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNLV USU
Shot Blocked 4.6% 8.1%
Offensive Rebound 31.5% 30.9%