NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MISS MSST
Points 71.5 75.8
Total Points   147.2
Points From 2-Pointers 36.7 39.9
Points From 3-Pointers 21.1 21.7
Points From Free Throws 13.7 14.2
Shooting MISS MSST
Field Goals Made 25.4 27.2
Field Goals Attempted 57.4 59.1
Field Goal % 44.2% 46.0%
2 Pointers Made 18.3 19.9
2 Pointers Attempted 35.1 37.8
2 Point Shooting % 52.2% 52.7%
3 Pointers Made 7.0 7.2
3 Pointers Attempted 22.3 21.3
3 Point Shooting % 31.6% 34.0%
Free Throws Made 13.7 14.2
Free Throws Attempted 18.8 21.6
Free Throw % 73.0% 65.5%
Ball Control MISS MSST
Rebounds 31.3 39.5
Rebounds - Defensive 21.8 25.4
Rebounds - Offensive 9.5 14.1
Turnovers 10.8 11.9
Blocked Shots 4.8 2.3
Steals 7.1 7.0
Fouls 14.5 14.6

Playing Style Advantage: Mississippi

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MISS MSST
Total Possessions 70.5
Effective Scoring Chances 69.2 72.8
% of Possessions with MISS MSST
2 Point Attempt 43.4% 43.7%
3 Point Attempt 27.5% 24.6%
Player Fouled 20.7% 20.6%
Turnover 15.3% 16.8%
Opponent Steal 9.9% 10.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken MISS MSST
Shot Blocked 4.0% 8.4%
Offensive Rebound 27.3% 39.3%