NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MISS VAN
Points 78.8 69.8
Total Points   148.6
Points From 2-Pointers 38.5 35.7
Points From 3-Pointers 27.1 19.8
Points From Free Throws 13.2 14.4
Shooting MISS VAN
Field Goals Made 28.3 24.4
Field Goals Attempted 60.2 60.5
Field Goal % 47.0% 40.3%
2 Pointers Made 19.3 17.8
2 Pointers Attempted 37.3 38.2
2 Point Shooting % 51.6% 46.7%
3 Pointers Made 9.0 6.6
3 Pointers Attempted 22.8 22.4
3 Point Shooting % 39.5% 29.5%
Free Throws Made 13.2 14.4
Free Throws Attempted 18.1 20.3
Free Throw % 73.0% 70.7%
Ball Control MISS VAN
Rebounds 37.4 36.3
Rebounds - Defensive 27.0 24.2
Rebounds - Offensive 10.4 12.1
Turnovers 9.2 9.6
Blocked Shots 4.3 2.4
Steals 5.5 5.4
Fouls 14.2 13.4

Playing Style Advantage: Vanderbilt

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MISS VAN
Total Possessions 70.3
Effective Scoring Chances 71.5 72.8
% of Possessions with MISS VAN
2 Point Attempt 45.7% 45.4%
3 Point Attempt 28.0% 26.6%
Player Fouled 19.1% 20.1%
Turnover 13.1% 13.6%
Opponent Steal 7.7% 7.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken MISS VAN
Shot Blocked 4.0% 7.3%
Offensive Rebound 30.1% 30.9%