NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNLV ALA
Points 76.4 86.2
Total Points   162.6
Points From 2-Pointers 40.3 36.2
Points From 3-Pointers 17.8 33.7
Points From Free Throws 18.3 16.3
Shooting UNLV ALA
Field Goals Made 26.1 29.3
Field Goals Attempted 58.6 63.4
Field Goal % 44.5% 46.2%
2 Pointers Made 20.2 18.1
2 Pointers Attempted 39.5 31.9
2 Point Shooting % 51.0% 56.7%
3 Pointers Made 5.9 11.2
3 Pointers Attempted 19.1 31.5
3 Point Shooting % 31.0% 35.6%
Free Throws Made 18.3 16.3
Free Throws Attempted 25.0 21.4
Free Throw % 73.0% 76.4%
Ball Control UNLV ALA
Rebounds 32.5 40.1
Rebounds - Defensive 22.7 26.2
Rebounds - Offensive 9.8 13.9
Turnovers 9.9 10.5
Blocked Shots 4.3 4.9
Steals 5.7 5.8
Fouls 15.7 17.0

Playing Style Advantage: Alabama

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNLV ALA
Total Possessions 73.2
Effective Scoring Chances 73.2 76.6
% of Possessions with UNLV ALA
2 Point Attempt 46.5% 35.9%
3 Point Attempt 22.5% 35.5%
Player Fouled 23.3% 21.4%
Turnover 13.5% 14.3%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 7.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNLV ALA
Shot Blocked 7.9% 7.6%
Offensive Rebound 27.3% 38.0%